This is the final PFT for the 2007 season, but worry not problem gamblers, "Bertuci's Bowling for Bowls" begins Thursday, December 20. I don't know what I'm missing here but it looks like the oddsmakers are giving us a Holiday present for this the final edition of a pick segment that has had mediocre results at best...
Rutgers (+2.5) at Louisville, Over/Under 60
Vegas Algebra says: Louisville 31.25 , Rutgers 28.75
Thoughts: Rutgers is undefeated midweek and having already accepted a bid to the International Bowl (below preseason expectations) is looking for a statement conference win to the end the year, its Pitino season in Louisville and the team isn't healthy and Steve Kragthorpe has been shooting down coaching rumors the past two weeks.
Suggestion: I like Rutgers, Ray Rice, and Ray Rice's mom huge over a Louisville team which may mail it in. Rutgers likes to run first and throw when necessary so I can't expect them to light up the Louisville secondary the way others have, which is why I like the Under
Showing posts with label Pumpin for Thursday. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pumpin for Thursday. Show all posts
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Pumpin' for Thursday: Week 12
Oregon (-12.5) at Arizona, Over/Under 67
Vegas Algebra says: Oregon 39.75, Arizona 27.25
Thoughts: I think 11 weeks of picking Thursday games has taught me that a road favorite in the top 5 has no chance of beating anyone by two touchdowns or more. Also you have to look at each school's contribution to post-graduate athletics. Oregon has given us...
Meanwhile Arizona has given us...
and...
Suggestion: I like Arizona spread Under the Covers. Or Arizona to cover the spread and the under. Actually I like both.
Vegas Algebra says: Oregon 39.75, Arizona 27.25
Thoughts: I think 11 weeks of picking Thursday games has taught me that a road favorite in the top 5 has no chance of beating anyone by two touchdowns or more. Also you have to look at each school's contribution to post-graduate athletics. Oregon has given us...
Meanwhile Arizona has given us...
and...
Suggestion: I like Arizona spread Under the Covers. Or Arizona to cover the spread and the under. Actually I like both.
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Pumpin For Thursday: Week 11
Louisville at West Virginia -15, over/under 63.5
Vegas Algebra says: West Virginia 38.75 Louisville 23.75
Derek Says: Take Louisville and the under. It seems Derek is trying to make something happen by taking these inflated numbers and going against his normal picking strategy. Two good offensive teams, one who plays zero defense, playing on Thursday night, usually a recipe for a lot of points, we'll see.
Vegas Algebra says: West Virginia 38.75 Louisville 23.75
Derek Says: Take Louisville and the under. It seems Derek is trying to make something happen by taking these inflated numbers and going against his normal picking strategy. Two good offensive teams, one who plays zero defense, playing on Thursday night, usually a recipe for a lot of points, we'll see.
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Pumpin For Thursday: Week 10
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech -2.5, Over/Under 41.5
Vegas Algebra says: Georgia Tech 22, Virginia Tech 19.5
Matchups:
When Georgia Tech Runs:
Georgia Tech’s Rushing Offense ranks 13th nationally, Virginia Tech’s Rushing Defense is 9th.
When Georgia Tech Passes:
Georgia Tech’s Passing Offense is 107th, Virginia Tech’s Passing Defense is 50th
When Virginia Tech Runs:
Virginia Tech’s Rushing Offense is 96th, Georgia Tech’s Rushing Defense is 8th
When Virginia Tech Passes:
Virginia Tech’s Passing Offense is 102nd, Georgia Tech’s Passing Defense is 34th
Thoughts:
Don’t think Georgia Tech Defensive Coordinator Jon Tenuta was up late trying to figure out the Virginia Tech offense. This might be a yawner even with Virginia Tech playing its second Thursday game in two weeks. Josh and I are going to the Music City Bowl in December in Nashville, a second tier bowl matching ACC and SEC teams. Josh bought ten upper level tickets for the purpose of scalping but those tickets will only have value if the teams selected to go have well traveling fanbases like Virginia Tech’s and not as much Georgia Tech’s. Therefore a Georgia Tech win tonight, makes the Rambling Wreck an easy take for the Chick Fil-A Bowl in Atlanta and may slip the Hokies and their rabid fanbase to Nashville to hopefully play Tennessee and line Josh’s pockets. Go Jackets!
Suggestion:
Doesn’t look like the Hokies will be able to do anything offensively against Georgia Tech in Atlanta, give the points and the under looks safe here, even as low as it is. But get ready for the understatement of the year…I’ve been wrong before.
Vegas Algebra says: Georgia Tech 22, Virginia Tech 19.5
Matchups:
When Georgia Tech Runs:
Georgia Tech’s Rushing Offense ranks 13th nationally, Virginia Tech’s Rushing Defense is 9th.
When Georgia Tech Passes:
Georgia Tech’s Passing Offense is 107th, Virginia Tech’s Passing Defense is 50th
When Virginia Tech Runs:
Virginia Tech’s Rushing Offense is 96th, Georgia Tech’s Rushing Defense is 8th
When Virginia Tech Passes:
Virginia Tech’s Passing Offense is 102nd, Georgia Tech’s Passing Defense is 34th
Thoughts:
Don’t think Georgia Tech Defensive Coordinator Jon Tenuta was up late trying to figure out the Virginia Tech offense. This might be a yawner even with Virginia Tech playing its second Thursday game in two weeks. Josh and I are going to the Music City Bowl in December in Nashville, a second tier bowl matching ACC and SEC teams. Josh bought ten upper level tickets for the purpose of scalping but those tickets will only have value if the teams selected to go have well traveling fanbases like Virginia Tech’s and not as much Georgia Tech’s. Therefore a Georgia Tech win tonight, makes the Rambling Wreck an easy take for the Chick Fil-A Bowl in Atlanta and may slip the Hokies and their rabid fanbase to Nashville to hopefully play Tennessee and line Josh’s pockets. Go Jackets!
Suggestion:
Doesn’t look like the Hokies will be able to do anything offensively against Georgia Tech in Atlanta, give the points and the under looks safe here, even as low as it is. But get ready for the understatement of the year…I’ve been wrong before.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Pumpin for Thursday: Week 9
#2 Boston College (+3) at Virginia Tech, Over/Under 42
Vegas Algebra says: Virginia Tech 22.5, Boston College 19.5
Thoughts: I could tell you each teams Run/Pass Offense/Defense stats and what they can and should do but its Thursday night in Blacksburg. Nobody stands a chance, especially a top 5 team that is coming off wins vs. UMass, Bowling Green, Army, and Notre Dame in a year where being a top 5 team in October means nothing.
Suggestion: Lay down the 3 and take Virginia Tech because it is Thursday night in Blacksburg. The forecast calls for rain so a sloppy game is possible take the under. And don't feel bad, nobody in Boston's watching anyway.
Vegas Algebra says: Virginia Tech 22.5, Boston College 19.5
Thoughts: I could tell you each teams Run/Pass Offense/Defense stats and what they can and should do but its Thursday night in Blacksburg. Nobody stands a chance, especially a top 5 team that is coming off wins vs. UMass, Bowling Green, Army, and Notre Dame in a year where being a top 5 team in October means nothing.
Suggestion: Lay down the 3 and take Virginia Tech because it is Thursday night in Blacksburg. The forecast calls for rain so a sloppy game is possible take the under. And don't feel bad, nobody in Boston's watching anyway.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Pumpin for Thursday: Week 8
South Florida (-3) at Rutgers, Over/Under 52
Vegas Algebra Says: South Florida 27.5, Rutgers 24.5
Stats Say:
South Florida Rushing Offense: 181YPG (35th nationally)
Rutgers Rushing Defense: 139YPG (45th)
Most of South Florida's success should come through the run
South Florida Passing Offense: 213YPG (73rd)
Rutgers Passing Defense: 158YPG (5th)
South Florida QB Matt Grothe will not be able to pass on Rutgers
Rutgers Rushing Offense: 182YPG (32nd)
South Florida Rushing Defense: 106YPG (26th)
No reprive for Ray Rice's disappointing Senior season against the Bulls run defense
Rutgers Passing Offense: 308YPG (12th)
South Florida Passing Defense: 178YPG (15th)
The surprising Mike Teel goes up against a great Bull secondary in the key matchup of this game
South Florida Turnovers Gained: 21 (T-4th)
Rutgers Turnovers Lost: 10 (T-33rd)
This is how South Florida's been winning, forcing turnovers as they did against West Virginia
Rutgers Turnovers Gained: 9 (T-98th)
South Florida Turnovers Lost: 13 (T-62nd)
South Florida has coughed up the ball but Rutgers hasn't had many opportunities to say the least
Game Plans:
Rutgers: Get Ray Rice going, protect the ball and keep the Thursday Night crowd in Piscataway involved in the game.
South Florida: Force Mike Teel to make mistakes allowing the Bulls to work from a short field and establish themselves as the second best team, if not the best, in the country.
My Thoughts:
Maybe its the ugly uniforms, maybe its the lack of a brand name but count me among the South Florida naysayers. Grothe's been okay and the rest of the offense is pretty pedestrian and I don't know how they would stack up against even some of the one loss teams in the top ten. Rutgers at home with 3 points looks like the best bet here. And it's Thursday bet the over
Vegas Algebra Says: South Florida 27.5, Rutgers 24.5
Stats Say:
South Florida Rushing Offense: 181YPG (35th nationally)
Rutgers Rushing Defense: 139YPG (45th)
Most of South Florida's success should come through the run
South Florida Passing Offense: 213YPG (73rd)
Rutgers Passing Defense: 158YPG (5th)
South Florida QB Matt Grothe will not be able to pass on Rutgers
Rutgers Rushing Offense: 182YPG (32nd)
South Florida Rushing Defense: 106YPG (26th)
No reprive for Ray Rice's disappointing Senior season against the Bulls run defense
Rutgers Passing Offense: 308YPG (12th)
South Florida Passing Defense: 178YPG (15th)
The surprising Mike Teel goes up against a great Bull secondary in the key matchup of this game
South Florida Turnovers Gained: 21 (T-4th)
Rutgers Turnovers Lost: 10 (T-33rd)
This is how South Florida's been winning, forcing turnovers as they did against West Virginia
Rutgers Turnovers Gained: 9 (T-98th)
South Florida Turnovers Lost: 13 (T-62nd)
South Florida has coughed up the ball but Rutgers hasn't had many opportunities to say the least
Game Plans:
Rutgers: Get Ray Rice going, protect the ball and keep the Thursday Night crowd in Piscataway involved in the game.
South Florida: Force Mike Teel to make mistakes allowing the Bulls to work from a short field and establish themselves as the second best team, if not the best, in the country.
My Thoughts:
Maybe its the ugly uniforms, maybe its the lack of a brand name but count me among the South Florida naysayers. Grothe's been okay and the rest of the offense is pretty pedestrian and I don't know how they would stack up against even some of the one loss teams in the top ten. Rutgers at home with 3 points looks like the best bet here. And it's Thursday bet the over
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
Pumpin for Thursday: Week 2
(Each Thursday I will make my spread prediction for the ESPN Thursday Night Game which I give weekly to my friend Josh
for his sportsbook account. As for you...all picks are for entertainment purposes only. You can't sue me to recover loss wagers)
Oregon State (-3.5) at Cincinnati, Over/Under=45.5
Vegas Algebra says: Oregon State 24.5, Cincinnati 21
My thoughts: Two Thursdays and so far two road favorites. Interesting although Vegas is really putting Nippert Stadium on a pedestal with this tight spread. Yvenson Bernard is a star whom the country may not get many chances to know. This is one of the few times he will be on a national stage. Sammie Stroughter is also expected to play for Oregon State returning from 'personal issues'. Cincinnati has a young team but they are capable of scoring too.
Suggestion: Learn two lessons from last week and take Oregon State. 1) Road favorites can cover on Thursday (LSU over Miss St.), 2) The mid-bottom of the Big East can't compete with the Pac Ten (Washington over Syracuse). I like the over, as I usually do on Thursdays and Oregon State. Speaking of LSU and Syracuse. I wonder what Joseph Addai and Marvin Harrison are upto these days?
for his sportsbook account. As for you...all picks are for entertainment purposes only. You can't sue me to recover loss wagers)
Oregon State (-3.5) at Cincinnati, Over/Under=45.5
Vegas Algebra says: Oregon State 24.5, Cincinnati 21
My thoughts: Two Thursdays and so far two road favorites. Interesting although Vegas is really putting Nippert Stadium on a pedestal with this tight spread. Yvenson Bernard is a star whom the country may not get many chances to know. This is one of the few times he will be on a national stage. Sammie Stroughter is also expected to play for Oregon State returning from 'personal issues'. Cincinnati has a young team but they are capable of scoring too.
Suggestion: Learn two lessons from last week and take Oregon State. 1) Road favorites can cover on Thursday (LSU over Miss St.), 2) The mid-bottom of the Big East can't compete with the Pac Ten (Washington over Syracuse). I like the over, as I usually do on Thursdays and Oregon State. Speaking of LSU and Syracuse. I wonder what Joseph Addai and Marvin Harrison are upto these days?
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Pumpin for Thursday: Week 1
(Each Thursday I will make my spread prediction for the ESPN Thursday Night Game which I give weekly to my friend Josh
for his sportsbook account. As for you...all picks are for entertainment purposes only. You can't sue me to recover loss wagers)
LSU (-18) at Mississippi State (over/under 45.5)
Vegas Algebra says: LSU 31.75, Mississippi State 13.75
My thoughts: How is this NOT a three touchdown spread? I kind of count on betting against new quarterbacks giving up 20+ points to win you money early on in this and get us all excited. As is I gotta think.
No way in hell Mississippi State is scoring more than 10 points in this game. They probably won’t even get in the end zone. Sylvester Croom is on the hot seat and will probably coach more aggressively than he should. LSU should get at least one defensive touchdown and a couple offensive ones. I like them at least 31 to 3.
Suggestion: Give up the 18 points, because it should be more. Go under because it’s the first game of the year and these defenses are both going to be way ahead of the offenses.
for his sportsbook account. As for you...all picks are for entertainment purposes only. You can't sue me to recover loss wagers)
LSU (-18) at Mississippi State (over/under 45.5)
Vegas Algebra says: LSU 31.75, Mississippi State 13.75
My thoughts: How is this NOT a three touchdown spread? I kind of count on betting against new quarterbacks giving up 20+ points to win you money early on in this and get us all excited. As is I gotta think.
No way in hell Mississippi State is scoring more than 10 points in this game. They probably won’t even get in the end zone. Sylvester Croom is on the hot seat and will probably coach more aggressively than he should. LSU should get at least one defensive touchdown and a couple offensive ones. I like them at least 31 to 3.
Suggestion: Give up the 18 points, because it should be more. Go under because it’s the first game of the year and these defenses are both going to be way ahead of the offenses.
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