Louisville at West Virginia -15, over/under 63.5
Vegas Algebra says: West Virginia 38.75 Louisville 23.75
Derek Says: Take Louisville and the under. It seems Derek is trying to make something happen by taking these inflated numbers and going against his normal picking strategy. Two good offensive teams, one who plays zero defense, playing on Thursday night, usually a recipe for a lot of points, we'll see.
Showing posts with label West Virginia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label West Virginia. Show all posts
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Pumpin' for Thursday: Week 3
West Virginia (-16.5) at Maryland, Over/Under 65.5
Vegas Algebra says: West Virginia 41, Maryland 24.5
Thoughts: West Virginia is the third straight road favorite on Thursday Night to start the year which is astonishing. Out of the three home dogs (Mississippi State, Cincinnati, Maryland) the Terps are by far the best coached. Maryland coach Ralph Friedgen is known for two things, devouring the buffet at ACC Media Day and his ”Friedgen Rules”. “Friedgen Rules” correlate a team’s miscues with its likelihood of winning the game.
“The statistic is derived by adding a team's interceptions, fumbles, dropped passes, sacks and penalties during a game and dividing that by the team's total number of offensive plays. The key is to keep the result under 12 percent -- meaning that the team is committing a human error on 12 percent or less of its plays.”
The merit isn’t necessarily in the statistic itself as I’m sure UM has hit under 12 percent in miscues and lost and missed the 12 percent goal and won. It’s that Friedgen’s players are always conscious of the need to hold onto the football, protect the quarterback, and limit penalties. Against a big-time opponent like West Virginia that has to be worth something.
Suggestion: A well coached team at home in a quasi-rivalry game and 16.5 points is impossible to pass up. Maryland should at least put a scare into the Mountaineers. West Virginia’s poor secondary makes it possible to take an over bet here but 65.5 points is ridiculous, styles and game plans may make this number impossible. Go under.
Vegas Algebra says: West Virginia 41, Maryland 24.5
Thoughts: West Virginia is the third straight road favorite on Thursday Night to start the year which is astonishing. Out of the three home dogs (Mississippi State, Cincinnati, Maryland) the Terps are by far the best coached. Maryland coach Ralph Friedgen is known for two things, devouring the buffet at ACC Media Day and his ”Friedgen Rules”. “Friedgen Rules” correlate a team’s miscues with its likelihood of winning the game.
“The statistic is derived by adding a team's interceptions, fumbles, dropped passes, sacks and penalties during a game and dividing that by the team's total number of offensive plays. The key is to keep the result under 12 percent -- meaning that the team is committing a human error on 12 percent or less of its plays.”
The merit isn’t necessarily in the statistic itself as I’m sure UM has hit under 12 percent in miscues and lost and missed the 12 percent goal and won. It’s that Friedgen’s players are always conscious of the need to hold onto the football, protect the quarterback, and limit penalties. Against a big-time opponent like West Virginia that has to be worth something.
Suggestion: A well coached team at home in a quasi-rivalry game and 16.5 points is impossible to pass up. Maryland should at least put a scare into the Mountaineers. West Virginia’s poor secondary makes it possible to take an over bet here but 65.5 points is ridiculous, styles and game plans may make this number impossible. Go under.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Projected Postseason Top 25: #4 West Virginia
Rich Rodriguez was all but gone to Tuscaloosa in January of this year. Every “reliable” news source had him in Alabama ready to sign on the dotted line. Then he decided at the last minute to pass up the rebuilding process at frantic Alabama and see the 2007 season, and quarterback Pat White and running back Steve Slaton, through. How special the season will be will depend on the improvement of the defense. We know one thing. Win or Lose West Virginia has already won a national championship…in partying.
Projected Record and Bowl Result: 12-1 Beat Penn State in Sugar Bowl
Who they’ll beat: Western Michigan (Home), Marshall (Road), Maryland (Road), East Carolina (Home), Syracuse (Road), Mississippi State (Home), Rutgers (Road), Louisville (Home), Cincinnati (Road), Connecticut (Home), Penn State (New Orleans, LA)
Who’ll beat them: South Florida (Road)
When they Pass: While not often his weapon of choice, Pat White does have a quality arm. In the event White does choose to air it out. Senior Darius Reynaud is ready to make plays happen.
When they Run: Anyone whose seen Steve Slaton play need not be reminded of his attributes as a runner. He has the type of breakaway speed that any runs past the linebackers are often gone for six. Freshman Noel Devine is waiting in the wings to replace him.
When their Opponents Run: Keilen Dykes is one of the best defensive tackles in America and he leads a strong line. Freshman J.T. Thomas is expected to bring speed to the linebackers Johnny Holmes and Reed Williams will supply the experience.
When their Opponents Pass: This is West Virginia’s Achilles heel. 109th against the pass last year. Both cornerbacks return but if strides aren’t made between last year and this. That might not mean anything.
When they Kick: Pat McAfee returns for his junior season after a strong sophomore campaign.
When they call Timeout: The Mountaineers feed of Rodriguez’s energy. He’s recruited strong and his turning down of the Alabama job should be a sign that he is committed to West Virginia for the long haul.
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