The Big Ten's Worst Case Scenario

In 2007 it’s easy to picture the Big Ten having a controversy much greater than trying to get its network into Comcast homes. In this top-heavy conference it isn’t hard to imagine the scenario TP&TP predicts.

-Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State coast through relatively easy non-conference schedules.
-All three teams beat Wisconsin (home against Michigan, at the other two teams) and the rest of their Big Ten schedules
-Michigan beats Penn State in Ann Arbor on September 22
-Todd Boeckman does what Troy Smith did in Happy Valley two years before only ten times worse
-Jim Tressel does to Lloyd Carr what Jim Tressel always does to Lloyd Carr

This would create a three-way tie for the Big Ten Championship with teams with equal overall records (10-1) and a 1-1 record against the other two teams. The Big Ten would break this tie by its ridiculous tiebreaker 6e which states:

“If the three teams are tied, and all three teams have the same winning percentage of all games played in the traditional 11/12 game schedule, the most recent team representing the Conference shall be eliminated, and the two remaining teams shall revert to the two team tie procedure.”

This would mean:

-Ohio State would be eliminated because it represented the Big Ten in the BCS National Championship last year (Michigan went to the Rose Bowl as an at-large team)
-Michigan would go to the Rose Bowl over Penn State because of their win on September 22

Once again Michigan would go to the Rose Bowl after losing to Ohio State because it didn’t represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl the year before. Make sense? To me neither but its how it would play out and the controversy would embarass the conference.

You would have to believe this would restart the search for a 12th member to add to the conference with a championship game to be scheduled after.

Projected Postseason Top 25: #13 Louisville

One of the more encouraging trends in college football in 2007 is that even without a playoff system, more teams, it seems have realistic National Championship expectations going into the season. While college football does still have its dominant favorites, and we’re getting to them, 13 teams have a visible road to New Orleans and a handful more than that think they do. Louisville is the first of 13 teams I can picture in New Orleans in early 2008 playing for a National Championship. Now holes on the defensive and tough games at places they haven’t played well in the past stand in Brian Brohm and the Cardinals’ way, but Louisville and every team profiled after is a legitimate National Championship contender.

Projected Record and Bowl Result: 11-2 Beat Oregon in Sun Bowl

Who they’ll beat: Murray State (Home), Middle Tennessee (Home), Kentucky (Road), Syracuse (Home), NC State (Road), Utah (Home), Cincinnati (Road), Connecticut (Road), Pittsburgh (Home), Rutgers (Home), Oregon (El Paso, TX)

Who’ll beat them: West Virginia (Road), South Florida (Road)

When they Pass: Brian Brohm is so gifted, conspiracy theorists have Bobby Petrino tanking games just for the right to take him with the #1 overall pick in next year’s NFL draft. Brohm has had shoulder, knee, and thumb injuries during his career at Louisville but if he can stay healthy he could put up Playstation-like numbers throwing to two superb receivers in junior Mario Urrutia and senior Harry Douglas. If the Cardinals passing attack sounds scary, it is.

When they Run: Sophomore Anthony Allen will have to run for touchdowns behind an entirely new right side of the offensive line, the entire left side and center return however. Fullback Brock Bolen is also capable of carrying the football.

When their Opponents Run: The loss of Amobi Okoye will be felt here, without a doubt. All-name Defensive end Peanut Whitehead returns as does Earl Heyman at tackle. Malik Jackson returns at Sam (strong side) linebacker, Preston Smith returns at the Willie (weak side).

When their Opponents Pass: Woodny Turenne, a junior college transfer could start away for a secondary that needs help and playmakers. Free Safety Latarrius Thomas is the only returnee from the nations 80th ranked passing defense.

When they Kick: Art Carmody won the Lou Groza award last year and is considered the nation’s best kicker going into this year. Corey Goettsche starts his second year as the team’s punter.

When they call Timeout: Steve Kragthorpe comes over from a successful tenure at Tulsa to take over for Bobby Petrino. While there isn’t a dropoff in coaching talent, one must worry about how long any transition could take. Defensive coordinator Mike Cassity is a future head coach.

Projected Postseason Top 25: #14 UCLA

For all but a handful of college football teams, turnover is a fact of life. Seniors graduate, Juniors leave early. Every year, almost every program has to replace proven talent with unproven talent and hope for the best out of recruits and former second teamers. UCLA is one of the few programs in the country that does not have this problem. 21 of 22 starters return on the Offense and Defense that beat rival USC last season. Forgive me if that fact doesn’t glare at me and put the Bruins high on this list for this fact alone, for in Westwood, the expectations are even higher.

Projected Record and Bowl Result: 11-2 Beat Missouri in Holiday Bowl

Who they’ll beat: Stanford (Road), BYU (Home), Utah (Road), Washington (Home), Notre Dame (Home), California (Home), Washington State (Road), Arizona (Road), Arizona State (Home), Oregon (Home), Missouri (San Diego, CA)

Who’ll beat them: Oregon State (Road), USC (Road)

When they Pass: Ben Olson is expected to return from his season-ending knee injury last year and win the starting job from Patrick Cowan who filled in adequately when Olson went down. Olson has a strong arm and is more talented but if he starts slow UCLA has an experienced backup to go to. A corps of experienced receivers give reason to believe UCLA will have one of the more exciting offenses in the nation this year.

When they Run: Runningback Chris Markey may hold the key to the Bruins season. He’ll have to run with more purpose than he did in 2006 for the Bruins to have the kind of respectable running attack that will more easily open up the offense for Olson and the receivers.

When their Opponents Run: Six of the front seven return from the 9th ranked run defense in the country.

When their Opponents Pass: It can be argued that UCLA has the best secondary in the Pac 10 also, it definitely has the most experienced. Trey Brown, Rodney Van, Chris Horton and Dennis Keyes are all Seniors.

When they Kick: The irony is the fate of all these seniors could rest on redshirt Freshman kicker Kai Forbath. Forbath is said to have range over 50 yards.

When they call Timeout: Despite the upset of USC, Karl Dorrell is a love him or hate him coach in Los Angeles. The win over USC actually may have saved his job and put a pretty front on a very mediocre 7-6 season. He has hired a new offensive coordinator (Jay Norvell) and a new defensive coordinator (Dewayne Walker) in hopes of converting the doubters


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Chase Brennan Amin

We interrupt this behind schedule countdown for some personal news.

Longtime friend of mine Paul Amin and his wife Kate birthed a baby boy Chase Brennan Amin today.

I figure this to be unintentional but his name is a combination of two of the best quarterbacks in college football in 2007.

Missouri's Chase Daniel and Hawaii's Colt Brennan

Chase was born 7 pounds 15 ounces and 20 inches long.

With decent size and height and of course that name, he could line up under center for Syracuse as early as 2025.