Pumpin For Thursday: Week 11

Louisville at West Virginia -15, over/under 63.5

Vegas Algebra says: West Virginia 38.75 Louisville 23.75

Derek Says: Take Louisville and the under. It seems Derek is trying to make something happen by taking these inflated numbers and going against his normal picking strategy. Two good offensive teams, one who plays zero defense, playing on Thursday night, usually a recipe for a lot of points, we'll see.

You Make the Call...

During Friday Night's Louisville-UConn game with the game tied 7-7 :

this play happened

Now the wave happened...whether or not it was a proper 'fair catch' wave seems to be the issue for debate but the players pulled up (for if you tackle a player after calling fair catch its a penalty) and Larry Taylor ran the return the rest of the way for a touchdown but I agree with all Sean McDonough's points (which I usually do, except for one).

So should this have been a reversed call or not?

Pumpin for Thursday: Week 8

South Florida (-3) at Rutgers, Over/Under 52

Vegas Algebra Says: South Florida 27.5, Rutgers 24.5

Stats Say:

South Florida Rushing Offense: 181YPG (35th nationally)
Rutgers Rushing Defense: 139YPG (45th)
Most of South Florida's success should come through the run


South Florida Passing Offense: 213YPG (73rd)
Rutgers Passing Defense: 158YPG (5th)
South Florida QB Matt Grothe will not be able to pass on Rutgers

Rutgers Rushing Offense: 182YPG (32nd)
South Florida Rushing Defense: 106YPG (26th)
No reprive for Ray Rice's disappointing Senior season against the Bulls run defense

Rutgers Passing Offense: 308YPG (12th)
South Florida Passing Defense: 178YPG (15th)
The surprising Mike Teel goes up against a great Bull secondary in the key matchup of this game


South Florida Turnovers Gained: 21 (T-4th)
Rutgers Turnovers Lost: 10 (T-33rd)
This is how South Florida's been winning, forcing turnovers as they did against West Virginia

Rutgers Turnovers Gained: 9 (T-98th)
South Florida Turnovers Lost: 13 (T-62nd)
South Florida has coughed up the ball but Rutgers hasn't had many opportunities to say the least


Game Plans:

Rutgers: Get Ray Rice going, protect the ball and keep the Thursday Night crowd in Piscataway involved in the game.
South Florida: Force Mike Teel to make mistakes allowing the Bulls to work from a short field and establish themselves as the second best team, if not the best, in the country.

My Thoughts:

Maybe its the ugly uniforms, maybe its the lack of a brand name but count me among the South Florida naysayers. Grothe's been okay and the rest of the offense is pretty pedestrian and I don't know how they would stack up against even some of the one loss teams in the top ten. Rutgers at home with 3 points looks like the best bet here. And it's Thursday bet the over

Syracuse beats Louisville: Five Thoughts

In what is being coined "The Biggest Upset in Big East History" by those that saw it. Syracuse upset Louisville 38-35. Luckily for me the game was carried locally here on the abc station. I guess us New England Orange alum still have some pull. Onto the five thoughts:

1) Syracuse could not stop any pass in between the linebackers and secondary. Why Louisville ran the ball or passed up the sidelines is beyond me especially late in the game. I am sure Steve Kragthorpe is going to get torched locally in Louisville.

2) As an alum, I was proud to get the win but Syracuse did everything they could to give this game away, including Andrew Robinson doing his best Jerome Bettis impression in the Louisville red zone when the game was set to be iced.

3) The announcers were right, it was unrealistic to hope for a national championship from a team with a secondary like Louisville's. If I played Fantasy College Football I'd start whatever quarterback played them each week. South Florida especially should whoop on them too.

4) "The Ville" is a lame nickname for a city, especially when so many towns and cities end in "ville". KFC buys advertising at Papa John's stadium. I don't know what the obesity rate is in Louisville but I'm guessing its above the national average.

5) Syracuse football is newsworthy for the first time since switching nicknames to "The Orange". So it'll be fun to see what media outlets are slow to come around. Espn.com has already screwed this up (Update: ESPN has figured out their error, less likely from this blog, more likely from the 1500 alumni who work there)

As you can imagine the people at Card Chronicle aren't taking it well and my friends at Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician are taking it probably too well

Pumpin' for Thursday: Week 3

West Virginia (-16.5) at Maryland, Over/Under 65.5

Vegas Algebra says: West Virginia 41, Maryland 24.5

Thoughts: West Virginia is the third straight road favorite on Thursday Night to start the year which is astonishing. Out of the three home dogs (Mississippi State, Cincinnati, Maryland) the Terps are by far the best coached. Maryland coach Ralph Friedgen is known for two things, devouring the buffet at ACC Media Day and his ”Friedgen Rules”. “Friedgen Rules” correlate a team’s miscues with its likelihood of winning the game.

“The statistic is derived by adding a team's interceptions, fumbles, dropped passes, sacks and penalties during a game and dividing that by the team's total number of offensive plays. The key is to keep the result under 12 percent -- meaning that the team is committing a human error on 12 percent or less of its plays.”

The merit isn’t necessarily in the statistic itself as I’m sure UM has hit under 12 percent in miscues and lost and missed the 12 percent goal and won. It’s that Friedgen’s players are always conscious of the need to hold onto the football, protect the quarterback, and limit penalties. Against a big-time opponent like West Virginia that has to be worth something.

Suggestion: A well coached team at home in a quasi-rivalry game and 16.5 points is impossible to pass up. Maryland should at least put a scare into the Mountaineers. West Virginia’s poor secondary makes it possible to take an over bet here but 65.5 points is ridiculous, styles and game plans may make this number impossible. Go under.

Pumpin for Thursday: Week 2

(Each Thursday I will make my spread prediction for the ESPN Thursday Night Game which I give weekly to my friend Josh
for his sportsbook account. As for you...all picks are for entertainment purposes only. You can't sue me to recover loss wagers)

Oregon State (-3.5) at Cincinnati, Over/Under=45.5



Vegas Algebra says: Oregon State 24.5, Cincinnati 21



My thoughts: Two Thursdays and so far two road favorites. Interesting although Vegas is really putting Nippert Stadium on a pedestal with this tight spread. Yvenson Bernard is a star whom the country may not get many chances to know. This is one of the few times he will be on a national stage. Sammie Stroughter is also expected to play for Oregon State returning from 'personal issues'. Cincinnati has a young team but they are capable of scoring too.



Suggestion: Learn two lessons from last week and take Oregon State. 1) Road favorites can cover on Thursday (LSU over Miss St.), 2) The mid-bottom of the Big East can't compete with the Pac Ten (Washington over Syracuse). I like the over, as I usually do on Thursdays and Oregon State. Speaking of LSU and Syracuse. I wonder what Joseph Addai and Marvin Harrison are upto these days?

Projected Postseason Top 25: #4 West Virginia

Rich Rodriguez was all but gone to Tuscaloosa in January of this year. Every “reliable” news source had him in Alabama ready to sign on the dotted line. Then he decided at the last minute to pass up the rebuilding process at frantic Alabama and see the 2007 season, and quarterback Pat White and running back Steve Slaton, through. How special the season will be will depend on the improvement of the defense. We know one thing. Win or Lose West Virginia has already won a national championship…in partying.

Projected Record and Bowl Result: 12-1 Beat Penn State in Sugar Bowl

Who they’ll beat: Western Michigan (Home), Marshall (Road), Maryland (Road), East Carolina (Home), Syracuse (Road), Mississippi State (Home), Rutgers (Road), Louisville (Home), Cincinnati (Road), Connecticut (Home), Penn State (New Orleans, LA)

Who’ll beat them: South Florida (Road)

When they Pass: While not often his weapon of choice, Pat White does have a quality arm. In the event White does choose to air it out. Senior Darius Reynaud is ready to make plays happen.

When they Run: Anyone whose seen Steve Slaton play need not be reminded of his attributes as a runner. He has the type of breakaway speed that any runs past the linebackers are often gone for six. Freshman Noel Devine is waiting in the wings to replace him.

When their Opponents Run: Keilen Dykes is one of the best defensive tackles in America and he leads a strong line. Freshman J.T. Thomas is expected to bring speed to the linebackers Johnny Holmes and Reed Williams will supply the experience.

When their Opponents Pass: This is West Virginia’s Achilles heel. 109th against the pass last year. Both cornerbacks return but if strides aren’t made between last year and this. That might not mean anything.

When they Kick: Pat McAfee returns for his junior season after a strong sophomore campaign.

When they call Timeout: The Mountaineers feed of Rodriguez’s energy. He’s recruited strong and his turning down of the Alabama job should be a sign that he is committed to West Virginia for the long haul.

Projected Postseason Top 25: #13 Louisville

One of the more encouraging trends in college football in 2007 is that even without a playoff system, more teams, it seems have realistic National Championship expectations going into the season. While college football does still have its dominant favorites, and we’re getting to them, 13 teams have a visible road to New Orleans and a handful more than that think they do. Louisville is the first of 13 teams I can picture in New Orleans in early 2008 playing for a National Championship. Now holes on the defensive and tough games at places they haven’t played well in the past stand in Brian Brohm and the Cardinals’ way, but Louisville and every team profiled after is a legitimate National Championship contender.

Projected Record and Bowl Result: 11-2 Beat Oregon in Sun Bowl

Who they’ll beat: Murray State (Home), Middle Tennessee (Home), Kentucky (Road), Syracuse (Home), NC State (Road), Utah (Home), Cincinnati (Road), Connecticut (Road), Pittsburgh (Home), Rutgers (Home), Oregon (El Paso, TX)

Who’ll beat them: West Virginia (Road), South Florida (Road)

When they Pass: Brian Brohm is so gifted, conspiracy theorists have Bobby Petrino tanking games just for the right to take him with the #1 overall pick in next year’s NFL draft. Brohm has had shoulder, knee, and thumb injuries during his career at Louisville but if he can stay healthy he could put up Playstation-like numbers throwing to two superb receivers in junior Mario Urrutia and senior Harry Douglas. If the Cardinals passing attack sounds scary, it is.

When they Run: Sophomore Anthony Allen will have to run for touchdowns behind an entirely new right side of the offensive line, the entire left side and center return however. Fullback Brock Bolen is also capable of carrying the football.

When their Opponents Run: The loss of Amobi Okoye will be felt here, without a doubt. All-name Defensive end Peanut Whitehead returns as does Earl Heyman at tackle. Malik Jackson returns at Sam (strong side) linebacker, Preston Smith returns at the Willie (weak side).

When their Opponents Pass: Woodny Turenne, a junior college transfer could start away for a secondary that needs help and playmakers. Free Safety Latarrius Thomas is the only returnee from the nations 80th ranked passing defense.

When they Kick: Art Carmody won the Lou Groza award last year and is considered the nation’s best kicker going into this year. Corey Goettsche starts his second year as the team’s punter.

When they call Timeout: Steve Kragthorpe comes over from a successful tenure at Tulsa to take over for Bobby Petrino. While there isn’t a dropoff in coaching talent, one must worry about how long any transition could take. Defensive coordinator Mike Cassity is a future head coach.

Projected Postseason Top 25: #15 Rutgers

For the entire 20th century and the first few years of the 21st, Rutgers played the same role to the northeast college football fan. First it provided a safety school for New Jersey’s millions of C students to get a “f*cking edjakashun” at a college with a name which they would never know the source, even years after they graduated (for the record Henry Rutgers was a Colonel in the Revolutionary War). Secondly, it provided Syracuse, Penn State, West Virginia, Boston College, Army, UMass, Binghamton, Vassar a rival to beat on in football year in, year out by large margins as their thousands of in-state recruits looked on. While the first may always be true, Greg Schiano and his axes are chopping wood and making Rutgers a formidable football program, the Scarlet Knights 2006 success could only be a beginning as New Jersey’s best high school football players discover the powerhouse in their own backyard.

Projected Record and Bowl Result: 11-2 Beat Miami in Meineke Car Care Bowl

Who they’ll beat: Buffalo (Home), Navy (Home), Norfolk State (Home), Maryland (Home), Cincinnati (Home), Syracuse (Road), South Florida (Home), Connecticut (Road), Army (Road), Pittsburgh (Home), Miami, FL (Charlotte, NC)

Who’ll beat them: West Virginia (Home), Louisville (Road)

When they Pass: Mike Teel was probably a prodigious quarterback at his high school in New Jersey. At Rutgers, at least in 2006, he was primarily a means by which the ball ended up in the hands of Ray Rice and Brian Leonard. With Leonard gone, Teel will probably be asked to make plays on occasions where defenses focus on Rice. Games against Navy, South Florida and Pittsburgh may hinge on his ability to make such plays.

When they Run: Even without Leonard lead blocking, Rice is fast enough to make plays on the ground. Whether he’ll live up to Heisman-hype remains to be seen. He’ll get plenty of opportunities to do so. Rice carried the ball 335 times and with no Leonard, that number should increase. What will hopefully decrease is the number of times announcers mention that he had agreed to play for Syracuse before Paul Pasqualoni was fired.

When their Opponents Run: Greg Schiano’s 4-3 will be merciless against the run. All-American defensive tackle Eric Foster leads the defensive line and Schiano’s best recruits from 2005 will be stepping in at linebacker.

When their Opponents Pass: Rutgers ranked 6th in the country in pass defense last year and while a lot of credit can be given to the pass rush. Twin brothers Jason and Devin McCourty will start at cornerback.

When they Kick: Jeremy Ito, who is best known for kicking the game winner against Louisville is one of the nation’s best.

When they call Timeout: Greg Schiano was the national Coach of the Year and was immediately Miami’s first choice in its coaching search last year. Wanting to see his reclamation project at Rutgers through, he turned the job down. His merits as a game coach can be debated but his ability to recruit and motivate can not. The sky is the limit for Rutgers as long as Schiano is in New Jersey.

Projected Postseason Top 25: #25 Syracuse

Just as Steve Spurrier casts his 25th place vote for the school that gave him his first head coaching job every year. I give mine to the school that gave me my education and three-quarters of my sexual partners. In case you see this as a sign to dismiss this blog entirely, please don’t go. I start covering the good teams tomorrow. Just allow me to preview my Orange, even if they are and may be for years, a perennial bottom feader.

Projected Record: 5-7

Who they’ll beat: Washington (Home), Miami OH (Road), Buffalo (Home), Connecticut (Road), Cincinnati (Home)

Who’ll beat them: Iowa (Road), Illinois (Home), at Louisville (Road), West Virginia (Home), Rutgers (Home), Pittsburgh (Road), South Florida (Home)

When they Pass: Head Coach Greg Robinson finally has the jockey for his horse. After two years of eleven step drops and sailing overthrown passes which labeled the Perry Paterson era at Syracuse, true Sophomore Andrew Robinson (no relation) takes over. “A-Rob” is a much better fit for the West Coast Offense than Patterson, although just about anybody would be. It’s a lot for him to ask to take the Orange anywhere on his own. If receivers Mike Williams, Rice Moss and Taj Smith stay healthy the passing offense should bring some excitement to the Carrier Dome, which desperately needs some.

When they Run: Exciting Freshman Tailback Delone Carter suffered a season-ending hip injury and its possible his career at Syracuse may never be the same. If Curtis “Boonah” Brinkley 1/3 as good in real life as he is in NCAA Football ’08 than he is more than adequate Running Back but he also has health concerns. The Offensive Line is still woeful however, they will need to play a lot better if the Orange are going to make a run at even the International Bowl, which might as well be in Baghdad for as many SU fans who would travel to Toronto in early January for a bowl game.

When their Opponents Run: When your conference has Ray Rice, Steve Slaton and even LaRod Stephens-Howling, its a scary thought to start three new linebackers. This could mean some ugly losses to the Big East elite. The experienced line which features best player and token NFL prospect Jameel McClain could keep the Orange in games against the rest of the schedule.



When their Opponents Pass: While the safeties including converted quarterback Joe Fields are solid, the corners are shaky. A lot will be counted on McClain and the pass rush, which was outstanding last season to help in the passing game.

When they Kick: Patrick Shadle made 16 of 18 Field Goals last year but he was never asked to kick anything crowd-wooing. Team MVP Brendan Carney has graduated leaving the punting in the hands (or is it feet, or foot) of Freshman Rob Long. If Robinson can’t get the offense going you will bet teams will come after a Freshman punter.

When they call Timeout: Syracuse hiring Greg Robinson because he reminded people of Pete Carroll is like Republicans voting for Mitt Romney because he reminds them of Ronald Reagan. You can decide which error is more egregious. This is year 3 of Robinsons “reconstruction” at Syracuse, and while I don’t feel he’ll ever be on the “hot seat” before his contract ends (anyone who’s familiar with Syracuse AD Daryl Gross doesn’t see him as the “My Bad, I F-ed up” type) the Orange will have to win at least 4-5 games before the fanbase, including yours truly becomes impatient.