Pumpin' for Thursday: Week 14

This is the final PFT for the 2007 season, but worry not problem gamblers, "Bertuci's Bowling for Bowls" begins Thursday, December 20. I don't know what I'm missing here but it looks like the oddsmakers are giving us a Holiday present for this the final edition of a pick segment that has had mediocre results at best...

Rutgers (+2.5) at Louisville, Over/Under 60

Vegas Algebra says: Louisville 31.25 , Rutgers 28.75

Thoughts: Rutgers is undefeated midweek and having already accepted a bid to the International Bowl (below preseason expectations) is looking for a statement conference win to the end the year, its Pitino season in Louisville and the team isn't healthy and Steve Kragthorpe has been shooting down coaching rumors the past two weeks.

Suggestion: I like Rutgers, Ray Rice, and Ray Rice's mom huge over a Louisville team which may mail it in. Rutgers likes to run first and throw when necessary so I can't expect them to light up the Louisville secondary the way others have, which is why I like the Under

Pumpin for Thursday: Week 8

South Florida (-3) at Rutgers, Over/Under 52

Vegas Algebra Says: South Florida 27.5, Rutgers 24.5

Stats Say:

South Florida Rushing Offense: 181YPG (35th nationally)
Rutgers Rushing Defense: 139YPG (45th)
Most of South Florida's success should come through the run


South Florida Passing Offense: 213YPG (73rd)
Rutgers Passing Defense: 158YPG (5th)
South Florida QB Matt Grothe will not be able to pass on Rutgers

Rutgers Rushing Offense: 182YPG (32nd)
South Florida Rushing Defense: 106YPG (26th)
No reprive for Ray Rice's disappointing Senior season against the Bulls run defense

Rutgers Passing Offense: 308YPG (12th)
South Florida Passing Defense: 178YPG (15th)
The surprising Mike Teel goes up against a great Bull secondary in the key matchup of this game


South Florida Turnovers Gained: 21 (T-4th)
Rutgers Turnovers Lost: 10 (T-33rd)
This is how South Florida's been winning, forcing turnovers as they did against West Virginia

Rutgers Turnovers Gained: 9 (T-98th)
South Florida Turnovers Lost: 13 (T-62nd)
South Florida has coughed up the ball but Rutgers hasn't had many opportunities to say the least


Game Plans:

Rutgers: Get Ray Rice going, protect the ball and keep the Thursday Night crowd in Piscataway involved in the game.
South Florida: Force Mike Teel to make mistakes allowing the Bulls to work from a short field and establish themselves as the second best team, if not the best, in the country.

My Thoughts:

Maybe its the ugly uniforms, maybe its the lack of a brand name but count me among the South Florida naysayers. Grothe's been okay and the rest of the offense is pretty pedestrian and I don't know how they would stack up against even some of the one loss teams in the top ten. Rutgers at home with 3 points looks like the best bet here. And it's Thursday bet the over

Projected Postseason Top 25: #15 Rutgers

For the entire 20th century and the first few years of the 21st, Rutgers played the same role to the northeast college football fan. First it provided a safety school for New Jersey’s millions of C students to get a “f*cking edjakashun” at a college with a name which they would never know the source, even years after they graduated (for the record Henry Rutgers was a Colonel in the Revolutionary War). Secondly, it provided Syracuse, Penn State, West Virginia, Boston College, Army, UMass, Binghamton, Vassar a rival to beat on in football year in, year out by large margins as their thousands of in-state recruits looked on. While the first may always be true, Greg Schiano and his axes are chopping wood and making Rutgers a formidable football program, the Scarlet Knights 2006 success could only be a beginning as New Jersey’s best high school football players discover the powerhouse in their own backyard.

Projected Record and Bowl Result: 11-2 Beat Miami in Meineke Car Care Bowl

Who they’ll beat: Buffalo (Home), Navy (Home), Norfolk State (Home), Maryland (Home), Cincinnati (Home), Syracuse (Road), South Florida (Home), Connecticut (Road), Army (Road), Pittsburgh (Home), Miami, FL (Charlotte, NC)

Who’ll beat them: West Virginia (Home), Louisville (Road)

When they Pass: Mike Teel was probably a prodigious quarterback at his high school in New Jersey. At Rutgers, at least in 2006, he was primarily a means by which the ball ended up in the hands of Ray Rice and Brian Leonard. With Leonard gone, Teel will probably be asked to make plays on occasions where defenses focus on Rice. Games against Navy, South Florida and Pittsburgh may hinge on his ability to make such plays.

When they Run: Even without Leonard lead blocking, Rice is fast enough to make plays on the ground. Whether he’ll live up to Heisman-hype remains to be seen. He’ll get plenty of opportunities to do so. Rice carried the ball 335 times and with no Leonard, that number should increase. What will hopefully decrease is the number of times announcers mention that he had agreed to play for Syracuse before Paul Pasqualoni was fired.

When their Opponents Run: Greg Schiano’s 4-3 will be merciless against the run. All-American defensive tackle Eric Foster leads the defensive line and Schiano’s best recruits from 2005 will be stepping in at linebacker.

When their Opponents Pass: Rutgers ranked 6th in the country in pass defense last year and while a lot of credit can be given to the pass rush. Twin brothers Jason and Devin McCourty will start at cornerback.

When they Kick: Jeremy Ito, who is best known for kicking the game winner against Louisville is one of the nation’s best.

When they call Timeout: Greg Schiano was the national Coach of the Year and was immediately Miami’s first choice in its coaching search last year. Wanting to see his reclamation project at Rutgers through, he turned the job down. His merits as a game coach can be debated but his ability to recruit and motivate can not. The sky is the limit for Rutgers as long as Schiano is in New Jersey.