Friday, September 14, 2007

What I'm Watching: Week 3

12:00 (Pittsburgh vs. Michigan State, Illinois vs. Syracuse, Virginia vs. North Carolina)- On second thought, a good time to go to the gym, do a good husbandly deed or sleep in to recover from a hangover.

3:30 Ohio State vs. Washington (ESPN)- Washington has looked impressive in wins over Syracuse and Boise State, but this is their biggest test. However, its also Ohio States. I have no idea how this one is going to go when it first looked like a chance for the Buckeyes and their fans to enjoy Seattle. Besides isn't Florida vs. Tennessee already a foregone conclusion and just be happy either Michigan or Notre Dame will have three losses before the end of Rosh Hashanah, you don't have to watch the game to find out which one.

8:00 Boston College vs. Georgia Tech (ESPN2)- The ACC Championship in September. While USC-Nebraska is the sexier matchup. This game should be the better of those two.

10:00 Florida State vs. Colorado (ESPN)- Two schools who rarely meet in the regular season. Two student bodies who rarely go to class. This game is best viewed drunk.

So How'd the Turtle Do?

The Maryland Terrapins lost last night to West Virginia 31-14 (Why did they NOT go for two after the final touchdown? Don't they know some people have money on the line?). While the extra point attempt proves Ralph Friedgen didn't care about people like myself who took the Turtle and the points, we know he cares about his Friedgen Rules which as explained measure miscues against total plays. So here is the recap of Maryland's performance against the Friedgen Rules formula (12% and under is considered passing).

Fumbles: 1
Interceptions: 2
Sacks: 4
Dropped Passes: 0
Penalties: 5

Total Miscues: 12

Total Plays: 67

Friegen Rules Pct.: 17.9%

Not sure if 0% would've stopped Steve Slaton last night but the formula holds true.

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Pumpin' for Thursday: Week 3

West Virginia (-16.5) at Maryland, Over/Under 65.5

Vegas Algebra says: West Virginia 41, Maryland 24.5

Thoughts: West Virginia is the third straight road favorite on Thursday Night to start the year which is astonishing. Out of the three home dogs (Mississippi State, Cincinnati, Maryland) the Terps are by far the best coached. Maryland coach Ralph Friedgen is known for two things, devouring the buffet at ACC Media Day and his ”Friedgen Rules”. “Friedgen Rules” correlate a team’s miscues with its likelihood of winning the game.

“The statistic is derived by adding a team's interceptions, fumbles, dropped passes, sacks and penalties during a game and dividing that by the team's total number of offensive plays. The key is to keep the result under 12 percent -- meaning that the team is committing a human error on 12 percent or less of its plays.”

The merit isn’t necessarily in the statistic itself as I’m sure UM has hit under 12 percent in miscues and lost and missed the 12 percent goal and won. It’s that Friedgen’s players are always conscious of the need to hold onto the football, protect the quarterback, and limit penalties. Against a big-time opponent like West Virginia that has to be worth something.

Suggestion: A well coached team at home in a quasi-rivalry game and 16.5 points is impossible to pass up. Maryland should at least put a scare into the Mountaineers. West Virginia’s poor secondary makes it possible to take an over bet here but 65.5 points is ridiculous, styles and game plans may make this number impossible. Go under.

13 percent mistakes out of total plays makes Ralph Friedgen this angry