Vegas Algebra says: West Virginia 41, Maryland 24.5
Thoughts: West Virginia is the third straight road favorite on Thursday Night to start the year which is astonishing. Out of the three home dogs (Mississippi State, Cincinnati, Maryland) the Terps are by far the best coached. Maryland coach Ralph Friedgen is known for two things, devouring the buffet at ACC Media Day and his ”Friedgen Rules”. “Friedgen Rules” correlate a team’s miscues with its likelihood of winning the game.
“The statistic is derived by adding a team's interceptions, fumbles, dropped passes, sacks and penalties during a game and dividing that by the team's total number of offensive plays. The key is to keep the result under 12 percent -- meaning that the team is committing a human error on 12 percent or less of its plays.”
The merit isn’t necessarily in the statistic itself as I’m sure UM has hit under 12 percent in miscues and lost and missed the 12 percent goal and won. It’s that Friedgen’s players are always conscious of the need to hold onto the football, protect the quarterback, and limit penalties. Against a big-time opponent like West Virginia that has to be worth something.
Suggestion: A well coached team at home in a quasi-rivalry game and 16.5 points is impossible to pass up. Maryland should at least put a scare into the Mountaineers. West Virginia’s poor secondary makes it possible to take an over bet here but 65.5 points is ridiculous, styles and game plans may make this number impossible. Go under.
1 comment:
You lost the spread by half a point. For the season you are now 3-3 with the total losses at 30.
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