Pumpin' For Thursday: Week 5

Southern Miss (+10.5) at Boise State, Over/Under 49.5

Vegas Algebra says: Boise State 30.0, Southern Miss 19.5

Thoughts: Both Southern Miss and Boise State were off last weekend, giving both squads a chance to rest and a week to prepare. However, nothing prepares a school to play on the “Smurf Turf” of Boise State’s home field. In fact, Boise State is riding a 31-game home winning streak in regular season games and is 53-2 in its last 55 home games overall. That is true home-field advantage.

This Broncos squad is not the giant-killing, Fiesta Bowl-winning squad of last year with the loss of starting QB Jared Zabransky to the NFL. RB Ian Johnson still leads a rushing offense that racks up 199 yards per game, although collectively their opponents allowed an average of 208 YPG. Also, the 30 PPG average of the Broncos is misleading. After rolling Weber St. at home 56-7, Boise State only managed 10 points in a 24-10 road loss at Washington and 24 points in a 24-14 home victory over Wyoming (The Broncos were a 12 point home favorite in that contest).

Southern Miss averages 27.3 PPG, scoring 35, 19, and 28 points in their three games. The 19 points came in a 39-19 road loss to Tennessee, which they followed up with a 28-21 victory at East Carolina. This will be the Golden Eagles third road game in a row.

Sophomore tailback Damion Fletcher is the workhorse of the Southern Miss offense, leading a rushing attack that is averaging 182 yards per game on the ground. Senior QB Jeremy Young is a dual-threat option, passing for over 200 YPG and chipping in over 60 yards rushing per game.

With both teams favoring the ground game and Southern Miss coming in averaging over 27 PPG, it was surprising to see Boise State as a double-digit favorite. Truth is, oddsmakers usually give the Broncos a 6 to 6.5-point edge for the blue field before taking into account the opponent. With this knowledge, the Broncos are 32-12 ATS as home favorites since they started making lines on there games.

Suggestion: With two run-oriented teams and Boise State probably still receiving the benefit of the doubt based on previous years, this line is way over-inflated. Take Southern Miss plus the points. The half-point on the over/under allows for a 28-21 Boise State victory. Go under.