The Big Ten's Worst Case Scenario

In 2007 it’s easy to picture the Big Ten having a controversy much greater than trying to get its network into Comcast homes. In this top-heavy conference it isn’t hard to imagine the scenario TP&TP predicts.

-Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State coast through relatively easy non-conference schedules.
-All three teams beat Wisconsin (home against Michigan, at the other two teams) and the rest of their Big Ten schedules
-Michigan beats Penn State in Ann Arbor on September 22
-Todd Boeckman does what Troy Smith did in Happy Valley two years before only ten times worse
-Jim Tressel does to Lloyd Carr what Jim Tressel always does to Lloyd Carr

This would create a three-way tie for the Big Ten Championship with teams with equal overall records (10-1) and a 1-1 record against the other two teams. The Big Ten would break this tie by its ridiculous tiebreaker 6e which states:

“If the three teams are tied, and all three teams have the same winning percentage of all games played in the traditional 11/12 game schedule, the most recent team representing the Conference shall be eliminated, and the two remaining teams shall revert to the two team tie procedure.”

This would mean:

-Ohio State would be eliminated because it represented the Big Ten in the BCS National Championship last year (Michigan went to the Rose Bowl as an at-large team)
-Michigan would go to the Rose Bowl over Penn State because of their win on September 22

Once again Michigan would go to the Rose Bowl after losing to Ohio State because it didn’t represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl the year before. Make sense? To me neither but its how it would play out and the controversy would embarass the conference.

You would have to believe this would restart the search for a 12th member to add to the conference with a championship game to be scheduled after.

Projected Postseason Top 25: #13 Louisville

One of the more encouraging trends in college football in 2007 is that even without a playoff system, more teams, it seems have realistic National Championship expectations going into the season. While college football does still have its dominant favorites, and we’re getting to them, 13 teams have a visible road to New Orleans and a handful more than that think they do. Louisville is the first of 13 teams I can picture in New Orleans in early 2008 playing for a National Championship. Now holes on the defensive and tough games at places they haven’t played well in the past stand in Brian Brohm and the Cardinals’ way, but Louisville and every team profiled after is a legitimate National Championship contender.

Projected Record and Bowl Result: 11-2 Beat Oregon in Sun Bowl

Who they’ll beat: Murray State (Home), Middle Tennessee (Home), Kentucky (Road), Syracuse (Home), NC State (Road), Utah (Home), Cincinnati (Road), Connecticut (Road), Pittsburgh (Home), Rutgers (Home), Oregon (El Paso, TX)

Who’ll beat them: West Virginia (Road), South Florida (Road)

When they Pass: Brian Brohm is so gifted, conspiracy theorists have Bobby Petrino tanking games just for the right to take him with the #1 overall pick in next year’s NFL draft. Brohm has had shoulder, knee, and thumb injuries during his career at Louisville but if he can stay healthy he could put up Playstation-like numbers throwing to two superb receivers in junior Mario Urrutia and senior Harry Douglas. If the Cardinals passing attack sounds scary, it is.

When they Run: Sophomore Anthony Allen will have to run for touchdowns behind an entirely new right side of the offensive line, the entire left side and center return however. Fullback Brock Bolen is also capable of carrying the football.

When their Opponents Run: The loss of Amobi Okoye will be felt here, without a doubt. All-name Defensive end Peanut Whitehead returns as does Earl Heyman at tackle. Malik Jackson returns at Sam (strong side) linebacker, Preston Smith returns at the Willie (weak side).

When their Opponents Pass: Woodny Turenne, a junior college transfer could start away for a secondary that needs help and playmakers. Free Safety Latarrius Thomas is the only returnee from the nations 80th ranked passing defense.

When they Kick: Art Carmody won the Lou Groza award last year and is considered the nation’s best kicker going into this year. Corey Goettsche starts his second year as the team’s punter.

When they call Timeout: Steve Kragthorpe comes over from a successful tenure at Tulsa to take over for Bobby Petrino. While there isn’t a dropoff in coaching talent, one must worry about how long any transition could take. Defensive coordinator Mike Cassity is a future head coach.

Projected Postseason Top 25: #14 UCLA

For all but a handful of college football teams, turnover is a fact of life. Seniors graduate, Juniors leave early. Every year, almost every program has to replace proven talent with unproven talent and hope for the best out of recruits and former second teamers. UCLA is one of the few programs in the country that does not have this problem. 21 of 22 starters return on the Offense and Defense that beat rival USC last season. Forgive me if that fact doesn’t glare at me and put the Bruins high on this list for this fact alone, for in Westwood, the expectations are even higher.

Projected Record and Bowl Result: 11-2 Beat Missouri in Holiday Bowl

Who they’ll beat: Stanford (Road), BYU (Home), Utah (Road), Washington (Home), Notre Dame (Home), California (Home), Washington State (Road), Arizona (Road), Arizona State (Home), Oregon (Home), Missouri (San Diego, CA)

Who’ll beat them: Oregon State (Road), USC (Road)

When they Pass: Ben Olson is expected to return from his season-ending knee injury last year and win the starting job from Patrick Cowan who filled in adequately when Olson went down. Olson has a strong arm and is more talented but if he starts slow UCLA has an experienced backup to go to. A corps of experienced receivers give reason to believe UCLA will have one of the more exciting offenses in the nation this year.

When they Run: Runningback Chris Markey may hold the key to the Bruins season. He’ll have to run with more purpose than he did in 2006 for the Bruins to have the kind of respectable running attack that will more easily open up the offense for Olson and the receivers.

When their Opponents Run: Six of the front seven return from the 9th ranked run defense in the country.

When their Opponents Pass: It can be argued that UCLA has the best secondary in the Pac 10 also, it definitely has the most experienced. Trey Brown, Rodney Van, Chris Horton and Dennis Keyes are all Seniors.

When they Kick: The irony is the fate of all these seniors could rest on redshirt Freshman kicker Kai Forbath. Forbath is said to have range over 50 yards.

When they call Timeout: Despite the upset of USC, Karl Dorrell is a love him or hate him coach in Los Angeles. The win over USC actually may have saved his job and put a pretty front on a very mediocre 7-6 season. He has hired a new offensive coordinator (Jay Norvell) and a new defensive coordinator (Dewayne Walker) in hopes of converting the doubters


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Chase Brennan Amin

We interrupt this behind schedule countdown for some personal news.

Longtime friend of mine Paul Amin and his wife Kate birthed a baby boy Chase Brennan Amin today.

I figure this to be unintentional but his name is a combination of two of the best quarterbacks in college football in 2007.

Missouri's Chase Daniel and Hawaii's Colt Brennan

Chase was born 7 pounds 15 ounces and 20 inches long.

With decent size and height and of course that name, he could line up under center for Syracuse as early as 2025.

Projected Postseason Top 25: #15 Rutgers

For the entire 20th century and the first few years of the 21st, Rutgers played the same role to the northeast college football fan. First it provided a safety school for New Jersey’s millions of C students to get a “f*cking edjakashun” at a college with a name which they would never know the source, even years after they graduated (for the record Henry Rutgers was a Colonel in the Revolutionary War). Secondly, it provided Syracuse, Penn State, West Virginia, Boston College, Army, UMass, Binghamton, Vassar a rival to beat on in football year in, year out by large margins as their thousands of in-state recruits looked on. While the first may always be true, Greg Schiano and his axes are chopping wood and making Rutgers a formidable football program, the Scarlet Knights 2006 success could only be a beginning as New Jersey’s best high school football players discover the powerhouse in their own backyard.

Projected Record and Bowl Result: 11-2 Beat Miami in Meineke Car Care Bowl

Who they’ll beat: Buffalo (Home), Navy (Home), Norfolk State (Home), Maryland (Home), Cincinnati (Home), Syracuse (Road), South Florida (Home), Connecticut (Road), Army (Road), Pittsburgh (Home), Miami, FL (Charlotte, NC)

Who’ll beat them: West Virginia (Home), Louisville (Road)

When they Pass: Mike Teel was probably a prodigious quarterback at his high school in New Jersey. At Rutgers, at least in 2006, he was primarily a means by which the ball ended up in the hands of Ray Rice and Brian Leonard. With Leonard gone, Teel will probably be asked to make plays on occasions where defenses focus on Rice. Games against Navy, South Florida and Pittsburgh may hinge on his ability to make such plays.

When they Run: Even without Leonard lead blocking, Rice is fast enough to make plays on the ground. Whether he’ll live up to Heisman-hype remains to be seen. He’ll get plenty of opportunities to do so. Rice carried the ball 335 times and with no Leonard, that number should increase. What will hopefully decrease is the number of times announcers mention that he had agreed to play for Syracuse before Paul Pasqualoni was fired.

When their Opponents Run: Greg Schiano’s 4-3 will be merciless against the run. All-American defensive tackle Eric Foster leads the defensive line and Schiano’s best recruits from 2005 will be stepping in at linebacker.

When their Opponents Pass: Rutgers ranked 6th in the country in pass defense last year and while a lot of credit can be given to the pass rush. Twin brothers Jason and Devin McCourty will start at cornerback.

When they Kick: Jeremy Ito, who is best known for kicking the game winner against Louisville is one of the nation’s best.

When they call Timeout: Greg Schiano was the national Coach of the Year and was immediately Miami’s first choice in its coaching search last year. Wanting to see his reclamation project at Rutgers through, he turned the job down. His merits as a game coach can be debated but his ability to recruit and motivate can not. The sky is the limit for Rutgers as long as Schiano is in New Jersey.

Projected Postseason Top 25: #16 Boise State

To the casual sports fan, Boise State's win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl was a nice story and an excellent game. To college football fans it meant a new attitude towards the elite teams in non-BCS conferences. To Boise State it meant redemption for football's recent most successful program and some new clout on the national football landscape. Boise State used to play everyday of the week just to get their blue turf on any ESPN channel the tables have turned somewhat on that In terms of the national polls Boise State's eminent run through the WAC will no longer be viewed with skepticism so while this year's team isn't as good and won't be as special as last year's. They should carry more respect through the season and should forge an annual spot in the top 25.

Projected Record and Bowl Result: 12-1 Beat Virginia in MPC Computers Bowl

Who they'll beat: Weber State (Home), Washington (Road), Wyoming (Home), Southern Miss (Home), New Mexico State (Home), Nevada (Home), Louisiana Tech (Road), Fresno State (Road), San Jose State (Home), Utah State (Road), Idaho (Home), Virginia (Boise, ID)

Who'll beat them: Hawaii (Road)

When they Pass: The irony about the 2007 Broncos is that losses of personnel may take away a lot of the wide open passing offense that caught everyone's attention January 1. There is no clear cut replacement yet for Jared Zabransky but senior Taylor Tharp appears to be the favorite. No starters or seniors return at wide receiver either. Whoever leads the offense should get plenty of time to throw the ball from First Round prospect Ryan Clady and four returning starters on the offensive line.

When they Run: Well no one will be asking "Ian who?" this season. The newlywed will be a Heisman candidate all season long and his touchdown numbers will backup his household name. Perhaps Ian and Chrissy Johnson can renew their vows at the Yale Club in New York City.

When their Opponents Run: The Broncos could be vulnerable up the middle replacing starters at defensive tackle and middle linebacker. Defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox emphasizes stopping the run first so whoever does fill in should be ready by the start of the season.

When their Opponents Pass: In the pass happy WAC, the Broncos are primed for success. Defensive ends Nick Schlekeway and Mike T. Williams are the WAC's best and both cornerbacks return

When they Kick: Redshirt Freshman Kyle Brotzman takes over the kicking duties and possibly the punting duties if no clearcut candidate emerges.

When they call Timeout: While Dan Hawkins built this program and the team that beat Oklahoma on January 1, Chris Peterson coached it to its biggest victory. Peterson seems like the type who recognizes the good thing he has in Boise and won't be taking his trick plays to the Pac Ten where there is so less to gain and so more to lose. And now that the Broncos are America's college football team, where else is more prestigious to go?

Projected Postseason Top 25: #17 Tennessee

There are plenty of programs that would love to have the kind of year-in year-out success the Phillip Fulmer and the Tennessee Volunteers have had including the first BCS National Championship following the 1998 season. However 1998 was also the last time Tennessee won the SEC and a pair of 8-10 win seasons, barring the disastrous 2005 5-6 campaign that most at Rocky Top would like to call a Mulligan, have grown weary on Rocky Top. I can’t guarantee that things will be any sweeter in Tennessee this season as tough games in conference and out of conference face the Vols in the first two months of the season. Another season in the middle of the SEC East may get fans thinking Phillip Fulmer’s time as Head coach may be coming to an end.

Projected Record and Bowl Result: 10-3 Beat Iowa in Capital One Bowl

Who they’ll beat: Southern Miss (Home), Arkansas State (Home), Georgia (Home), Mississippi State (Road), South Carolina (Home), Louisiana-Lafayette (Home), Arkansas (Home), Vanderbilt (Home), Kentucky (Road)

Who’ll beat them: California (Road), Florida (Road), Alabama (Road),

When they Pass: Erik Ainge takes the torch from Chris Leak as the player who it seems has been playing college football for ten years even though its only been four. He only wishes his receivers were half as experienced. Robert Meachem and the rest of the receiving corps are gone leaving no receiver with more than 14 receptions in 2006 on the roster.

When they Run: LaMarcus Coker heads a Running Back committee but he is suspended indefinitely (ganja), Arian Foster should get the start in Berkeley when the Volunteers test themselves Week 1.

When their Opponents Run: While the loss of Justin Harrell is lessened in significance because he was rendered ineffective with a torn bicep, this unit ranked 72nd nationally against the run. The linebacker unit is one of the best in the nation and there is depth where there is almost none up front. This is why the scuttlebutt around the Vols program is about making the switch from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4.

When their Opponents Pass: Safety Jonathan Hefney leads a secondary that has loads of potential he’ll be asked to cover a lot of mistakes by first time starters in the brutal September Tennessee has scheduled.

When they Kick: Britton Colquitt is the latest of the first family of Tennessee punting. He’ll also be doing the kicking on field goals and kickoffs. Is there such thing as an “Ironman Kicker”? If not there should be.

When they call Timeout: Fulmer is a fine coach and with the exception of 2005 has kept Tennessee in the upper echelon of college football. But when Florida, South Carolina, and Alabama are going all-in with coaching coups, it gets harder and harder to justify standing pat as 1998 gets farther and farther away. OC David Cutcliffe would seem like a natural heir if Fulmer and Tennessee tire of each other it’s just a matter of how many Conference USA jobs can he turn down.