Thursday, October 18, 2007

Pumpin for Thursday: Week 8

South Florida (-3) at Rutgers, Over/Under 52

Vegas Algebra Says: South Florida 27.5, Rutgers 24.5

Stats Say:

South Florida Rushing Offense: 181YPG (35th nationally)
Rutgers Rushing Defense: 139YPG (45th)
Most of South Florida's success should come through the run


South Florida Passing Offense: 213YPG (73rd)
Rutgers Passing Defense: 158YPG (5th)
South Florida QB Matt Grothe will not be able to pass on Rutgers

Rutgers Rushing Offense: 182YPG (32nd)
South Florida Rushing Defense: 106YPG (26th)
No reprive for Ray Rice's disappointing Senior season against the Bulls run defense

Rutgers Passing Offense: 308YPG (12th)
South Florida Passing Defense: 178YPG (15th)
The surprising Mike Teel goes up against a great Bull secondary in the key matchup of this game


South Florida Turnovers Gained: 21 (T-4th)
Rutgers Turnovers Lost: 10 (T-33rd)
This is how South Florida's been winning, forcing turnovers as they did against West Virginia

Rutgers Turnovers Gained: 9 (T-98th)
South Florida Turnovers Lost: 13 (T-62nd)
South Florida has coughed up the ball but Rutgers hasn't had many opportunities to say the least


Game Plans:

Rutgers: Get Ray Rice going, protect the ball and keep the Thursday Night crowd in Piscataway involved in the game.
South Florida: Force Mike Teel to make mistakes allowing the Bulls to work from a short field and establish themselves as the second best team, if not the best, in the country.

My Thoughts:

Maybe its the ugly uniforms, maybe its the lack of a brand name but count me among the South Florida naysayers. Grothe's been okay and the rest of the offense is pretty pedestrian and I don't know how they would stack up against even some of the one loss teams in the top ten. Rutgers at home with 3 points looks like the best bet here. And it's Thursday bet the over

Not for real...

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Pumpin' For Thursday: Week 7

Florida State (-6) at Wake Forest, Over/Under 44

Vegas Algebra Says: Florida State 25, Wake Forest 19

Stats Say:

Florida State Rushing Offense: 120YPG (88th nationally)
Wake Forest Rushing Defense: 111YPG (27th)
Florida State shouldn’t be able to run the ball

Florida State Passing Offense: 225YPG (63rd)
Wake Forest Passing Defense: 247YPG (83rd)
Florida State’s opportunities should come via the pass

Wake Forest Rushing Offense: 139YPG (71st )
Florida State Rushing Defense: 82YPG (11th)
Wake Forest will not be able to run the ball

Wake Forest Passing Offense: 199YPG (84th)
Florida State Passing Defense: 221YPG (59th)
Wake Forest could be able to pass

Wake Forest Turnover Gain: 14 (T-21st)
Florida State Turnover Loss: 3 (T-3rd)
This is the key matchup Florida State protects the ball well and Wake Forest takes it away often

Wake Forest Turnover Loss: 14 (T-90th)
Florida State Turnover Gain: 10 (T-68th)
Conversely Wake Forest gives up the ball too often but Florida State hasn’t taken it away

Wake Forest Interceptions Lost: 10 (T-102nd)
Florida State Interceptions Gain: 5 (T-72nd)
Wake Forest Quarterback Riley Skinner throws too many interceptions but FSU’s Pass Defense is pedestrian

Game Plans:

Wake Forest: Throw the ball early to get the lead and take advantage of the Thursday night home crowd. An early turnover would help.
Florida State: Stop the run and force Riley Skinner into obvious throwing situations and capitalize on opportunities.

My Thoughts:

I think Florida State’s game plan is more likely to work and Skinner seems like the type who forces things when playing a big opponent on a big stage. Plus he’s only a sophomore. I think this is one instance where its okay to take the road favorite on a Thursday. Also like the over here because the running game is taken out of the game plans for both teams.

Thursday, October 4, 2007

Pumpin' for Thursday: Week 6

Kentucky at South Carolina (-3.5), Over/Under 57.5

Vegas Algebra says: South Carolina 30.5, Kentucky 27

Thoughts: By far the most intriguing Thursday game so far. South Carolina and Kentucky are both atop the SEC East and both have one impressive win (Georgia and Louisville respectively). Kentucky quarterback Andre Woodson is getting Heisman consideration but Steve Spurrier is 14-0 against Kentucky.

Suggestions: For the past five weeks this site has been crunching numbers and paying attention to facts like Spurrier's record against Kentucky and South Carolina's Top 25 Defense. And PFT is slipping, therefore I am gonna pick this game solely on feel. Kentucky FEELS like a team of destiny and its rare you get a chance to pick a Top Ten team AND get 3.5 points. It's Thursday and Steve Spurrier's involved so the OVER sounds like a good bet here too.

Tell me again, why I went to college in the North?

Monday, October 1, 2007

You Can't Grieve Forever

Memphis is going to go ahead and play their nationally televised Tuesday Night ESPN game against Marshall despite the death of defensive lineman Taylor Bradford.
Bradford was shot and killed on campus Sunday evening.
The players voted, unanimously, to play this game as scheduled.

Sunday Hangover

Such a crazy week it took me a few extra days to digest the action. Half the top 10 lost, and 7 of the top 13.

USC 27 Washington 24- Don't get tied up in how close this game was. USC is still great, every team has off games, and Washington isn't bad. But thank god for the BCS. Imagine if LSU won out and we didn't have a way to guarantee those two teams would play each other? What a sham that would be.

Colorado 27 Oklahoma 24 and Kansas State 41 Texas 21-I guess that takes a little luster off the Red River Shootout this week.

Auburn 20 Florida 17- Urban Meyer tried the late timeout gimmick that worked twice in the NFL. Auburn's unflappable kicker made it twice and down go the Gators.

California 31 Oregon 24- A fun game despite only 55 points scored. 11 for 161 and 2 touchdowns for Dasean Jackson and Dennis Dixon threw for 306 yards. Cal moves up to number 3 in the country and they play USC on November 10th. That should be worth watching.

Ohio State 30 Minnesota 7 and Wisconsin 37 Michigan State 34- They're both in the top 5 nationally now and they'll face each other on November 3. But they still have to contend with Michigan which plays Wisconsin on November 10 and then Ohio State on November 17.

Maryland 34 Rutgers 24- Last year's Cinderella is this year's wicked stepsister. Make room for South Florida and Cincinnati. South Florida is #6 in the AP Poll.

Kentucky 45 Florida Atlantic 17- Kentucky is now ranked 8th. In football. For now. They played South Carolina on Thursday, then LSU and Florida. If they win all three of those games they should jump USC and everyone else into the #1 spot. If the Heisman were about on-field performance and not pre-season hype, Andre Woodson would be a top contender. 16 touchdowns, 1 interception.

Ashley Judd is going to have to start showing off her pompoms at Kentucky football games

Hawaii 38 Idaho 20- Colt Brennan throws for only 368 yards and 5 INTs but the Rainbow Warriors still win big.

Friday, September 28, 2007

A Leopard Can't Change His Spots

Linebacker Willie Williams was kicked off the Louisville football team after being arrested earlier this week. He was pulled over by the cops (after pursuing him several blocks) who found him attempting to hide/destroy marijuana by chewing on it. They found pot elsewhere in the car and charged him with misdemeanor possession, misdemeanor driving without a license, and a felony for tampering with evidence.
You may remember that on a recruiting trip to the University of Florida, a few years ago, Williams hugged a female student without her permission, hit a man at a bar and set off three fire extinguishers in his hotel, all in a span of five hours.
That prompted a review of Williams's background which showed that he had been arrested 11 times starting when he was only 14 years old.
Williams enrolled at Miami (who took him because hey, what's one more criminal on the roster), redshirted one year, played sparingly in another, then asked for his release.